another episode of Horseshoes with Holder before the Indianapolis Colts head to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Here’s a brief rundown of the topics for today’s show.Andrew Luck earns AFC player of the monthLuck is absolutely playing the best football of his careerLuck’s ability to work the pocket via insight from QB coach Marcus BradyHow the interior protection has helped Luck step up in the pocketLuck is able to read the field without escaping right or left Nate Hairston Color Rush Jersey , and may be keeping his INTs to a minimumLuck has earned the ‘elite’ moniker from more than just a few people with this year’s performancesDoyle goes to IR with very serious kidney injuryWhat does Jack Doyle’s injury mean for the Colts going forward?Doyle isn’t easily replaceable with all that he provides to the offenseMarlon Mack’s concussion issues, and his road back to the fieldSurprised that Mack has made it back to the field already?Evan Boehm’s performance in Week 12Boehm will get another big test in JacksonvilleRevisiting Quincy Wilson and Malik Hooker from 2017 draft classHooker’s health, scheme change playing a part in his performance this yearColts secondary still isn’t allowing a lot of deep ballsWilson’s facing totally different mentality in zone heavy coverage versus man schemeWilson is seeing more playing time, is he starting to figure it all out?Blake Bortles gets benched for Cody Kessler for Week 13 matchupLeonard Fournette is also out versus ColtsDo these changes help the Jaguars, or the Colts?This is a must win for the ColtsPlease subscribe, rate and review the channel anywhere you listen to podcasts.Follow our hosts on Twitter: @MDanelySB | @HolderStephen | @chrisblystoneStampede Blue Podcast Links:Apple Podcasts | Stitcher | Art 19 | SB Colts Cast YT Channel | Google | Spotify Heading into the divisional round playoff game, the Colts are underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs with the current point spread at about +5-1/2.For you non-bettors, that means the Colts are expected to lose by 5.5 points.But what does that say about the chance of a Colts win? Can that be converted into a probability?Clearly it’s less than a 50% chance, but how much less?If you listen to Chiefs fans, it’s about 0% https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Braden-Smith-Jersey , but I think I’ll attempt a more scientific approach rather than simply trusting the opinions of Camaro-heads. Looking at all games since 1978 for teams where the point spread was +5.5, the actual point differentials of the completed games are all over the place. That’s a big range of outcomes, but Vegas was fairly accurate, as about half of the games are under the spread and half over.Totaling the results up by win-loss outcome gives the following: WinsCategoryLWTotal% WinCategoryLWTotal% WinSo, about 31% of teams that were 5-1/2 point underdogs ended up winning their game.Wait a minute, the Chiefs fans say. This is an away game for the Colts, that changes things.Yeah, not really.The point spreads already include the impact of home/away. Here is the data with just visiting teams added. Away WinsCategoryLWTotal% WinCategoryLWTotal% Win31%.Oh yeah? Well, what about outdoor games. Outdoor WinsCategoryLWTotal% WinCategoryLWTotal% Win31%.What about Outdoors AND away?Away + Outdoor WinsCategoryLWTotal% WinCategoryLWTotal% WinOkay, 32%.I tried running the data for games with the temperature under 40 degrees and although there were too few games to be meaningful Jabaal Sheard Jersey , the win rate was similar.The point is that no matter how you slice it, a +5.5 point spread historically translates to about a 30% chance of winning. Of course the upcoming game’s point spread is not yet finalized and could change up until game time. So, it would be handy to have a general formula for any point spread.To create that, I took all of the games and ran a regression of Win% against the point spread.Limiting the data to just point spreads that have occurred at least 30 times since 1978, the plot looks like this.Using the regression formula, the expected win % on +5/1-2 point games is:0.4988 - 0.0282 * 5.5=34.3%So the generalized formula gives the Colts a slightly higher chance of winning than I calculated before and is likely a better measure as it is based on a much larger set of data. The beauty of all of this is that these are just probabilities and not certainties, so no matter what happens tomorrow, I can’t be proven wrong. I love math.