He’sg. What might he do to get better?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections NewsAnalysis & EditorialsCleveland Indians prospects & minor leaguesGame RecapsTransactionsAnalysis & EditorialsFinding Shane Bieber’s breakoutNew http://www.whitesoxfanproshop.com/authentic-paul-konerko-jersey ,3commentsHe’s talked about as the next big thing in Cleveland pitching. What might he do to get better? ESTShareTweetShareShareFinding Shane Bieber’s breakoutJohn E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY SportsAs rumors continue to rumble about the Indians trading away one of their Cy Young-caliber pitchers, the pain that move would inevitably cause is at least dampened somewhat by the emergence of Shane Bieber this past season. Though the 4.55 ERA over 114.2 innings doesn’t exactly engender a lot of excitement, the numbers behind the numbers - 5/1 K/BB ratio, 3.23 FIP, a probably unsustainably high .356 BABIP - make Bieber seem like a real candidate for mid-rotation starter, if not something even greater. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello included him in a list of 5 potential breakout pitchers for 2019. Now we have a couple months to marinate on it, and still a lot of winter to get through, what might that look like?The elements that made Bieber an effective pitcher are simple. He has a solid repertoire of pitches, though nothing world-beating, and he pounds the hell out of the strike zone. This combo catapulted him through the minors as he over-matched with command and some solid stuff. Both continued in the Majors, where he showed no fear. He actually hit the zone 47.9 percent of the time in 2018, the 9th highest among starters who pitched more than 100 innings. His 4.7 percent walk rate also ranked ninth in that cohort, while his K%-BB% was 19th. As we all saw, his ability to throw more than 85 mph with his fastball - he averaged 93 mph on the four-seam this year, a shade above league average 92.6 - means he’s likely not a Josh Tomlin clone, and that this was a beginning, not a glimpse of all he could be. So that’s good news. The bad news Bill Melton Jersey , or at least the thing that might waylay his hopes for a leap, is how often hitters swung at his pitches in the zone. While he ranked ninth in in-zone pitches, he was 61st in having those pitches swung at. Obviously hitters are going to swing at pitches in the zone more, because that’s the point of the strike zone. But this was a season of hitters getting used to him, and probably a bit of being overwhelmed with his preternatural control. He didn’t throw like a rookie, which is probably pretty unsettling for a veteran hitter suddenly shown this new pitcher. It would make sense that, if he keeps throwing the ball in the zone, and keeps leaning on his fastball a lot, that hitters will recognize that and attack more often. And when those swung-at pitches were struck — which happened 85 percent of the time on in-zone pitches — they were struck hard. His 43.3 percent Hard Hit rate (Exit Velo over 95 mph) was fifth highest among starters in 2018. If this holds similar and hitters are more aggressive with him, it could make that hoped for breakout a bashing pretty quickly. His propensity for giving up hard-hit balls had something to do with his elevated BABIP of course, but it should tack downwards in 2019 regardless just by natural regression. Only two other pitchers in the top 10 in Hard Hit Rate had a BABIP over .300. Of course, home runs don’t count towards BABIP, and Jason Hammel hard the second highest rate while playing in Kaufmann Stadium with a .337 BABIP. Bieber doesn’t have an ocean of grass behind him, so there’s a small chance that BABIP drop might also lead to a spike in home runs. Balls in the zone in this era of swinging for the fences is a recipe for big ERA’s and quick exits.But Bieber also had a 45.3 percent grounder rate in 2018, so he at least didn’t give hitters quite as much of a chance to hit for extra bases. If he can elevate that number a bit — and with that control of his, it’s not out of the realm of possibility as he can work the edges, down in the zone and keep guys off balance if he features less fastballs http://www.whitesoxfanproshop.com/authentic-paul-konerko-jersey , he is bound to have at least a bit of a leap. Speaking of that pinpoint control, which is always central to any projection surrounding Bieber, his uber-refined mechanics place him perfectly to develop some kind of out pitch that can help that Hard Hit Rate drop. Before we go there, think back to Mike Clevinger’s first season in Cleveland in 2016. He had a tantalizing skill set - solid fastball, good secondary stuff, and he struck out a respectable 21.5 percent of batters. He also walked 12.5 percent, which was less respectable. The next year that K rate spiked to 27.3 and the walk rate fell a bit to 12 percent. But the central part of his 2018 breakout to stardom was seeing that walk rate crater, plummeting to 8.3 percent while the K rate held near-firm at 25.6 percent. And central to this whole improvement was a refinement of his mechanics, encapsulated in his release point. Take a look at his year-to-year improvement:via GIPHYHe cut his walk rate by cutting down on the variance in rlease point. This also made him harder to track by the hitter. Now, take a look at Bieber’s 2018 release point chart:It’s refined, even more so than a three year veteran like Clevinger, and even moreso than a two-time Cy Young winner like, say, Corey KluberAgain, it’s elite control, he just doesn’t have the pitch to back it up like Kluber. Which isn’t a small thing, by any stretch. to throw less fastballs Early Wynn Jersey , cut their usage down to 45 percent or so from the 57.5 he showed in 2018. He’s already demonstrated great control with his offspeed stuff as much as his fastball, so leaping into more “pitching” rather than just throwing could be his solution, rather than Bauer-ing his way into stealing an elite pitch from somebody. Barring some kind of pitch development, and seeing what we have from pitchers across the league and even within the Indians’ organization that doesn’t seem unlikely, that control and improvement of his pitch selection would be what elevates Bieber. He’s not going to turn into Tomlin, but that could be a guy to emulate, at least in approach. It’s a different way to forge a breakout of course, but one that you can rightfully foresee. Back to afternoon baseball!"For the first time since the Cubs left HoHoKam Park after the 2013 season, I won’t see them play there. I went to four Cubs/Athletics games at what they now call HoHoKam Stadium from 2015-18, but this one... been there, done that. Going to skip the extra trip to Mesa this year.If there are a lot of home runs hit this afternoon, blame the weather, not the pitchers. Winds could gust up to 35 miles per hour today.This is the A’s last spring training game before they leave to open the season in Japan. They play a pair of exhibition games against the Nippon Ham Fighters March 17 and 18, then open the regular season against the Mariners in Tokyo March 20 and 21.Notes for today:The Cubs’ 124 runs scored are second-most in the Cactus League behind only the Angels (146 runs).Mark Zagunis’ 10 RBI are tied for sixth-most in the Cactus League. Johnny Field’s .359 on-base percentage ranks ninth.Cristhian Adames’ 13 hits are tied for the Cactus League lead while his eight runs scored are tied for seventh and his 23 total bases are tied for eighth. Kyle Schwarber is tied for third in the Cactus League with nine walks.Carl Edwards Jr. has thrown four scoreless innings in four appearances, walking none and striking out five.Steve Cishek has turned in three scoreless outings, totaling three innings.Dillon Maples has walked two and struck out nine in 4?innings.Here are today’s particulars.Cubs lineup:Athletics lineup:Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs. Also on the Cubs pitching list today: Steve Cishek, Brad Brach Avisail Garcia Jersey , George Kontos, Mike Zagurski and Matt Carasiti.Mike Fiers will start for the A’s. Other A’s pitchers scheduled: Blake Treinen, Fernando Rodney, Joakim Soria and Yusmeiro Petit.Today’s game is an audio webcast on cubs.com. No TV today.MLB.com GamedayPlease note that during spring training, Gameday doesn’t usually go pitch-by-pitch as it does during the regular season — usually, it will update after each at-bat.Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.Please visit our SB Nation Athletics site Athletics Nation. If you do go there to interact with A’s fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.For spring-training games, we’ll have a first-pitch thread at five minutes to game time and one overflow thread, 90 minutes after game time (because I know how you all like overflow threads!). For today, that will be 3 p.m. CT and 4:30 p.m. CT. These threads will not post individually onto the front page; instead, you can find links to them in the box marked ”Chicago Cubs Game Threads” at the bottom of the front page. There will also be a StoryStream on the front page with all the game thread links, as well as the recap after the game is over. The pitcher boxes and regular-season stats will return on Opening Day.Discuss amongst yourselves.